Tomorrow night in Las Vegas, the 36 year old P4P king of boxing Floyd Mayweather Jr. will make his 21st appearance at the MGM Grand. His opponent Saul Alvarez is a 23 year old undefeated champion looking to do what 43 others could not, take “Money’s” 0. The “Big One” as its being billed, is not only the biggest boxing event of the year, but it may become the biggest ppv fight of all-time. The card features two undefeated champions meeting at a catch-weight of 152pounds in the main event & also has in the co-main event, the lineal 140 pound title fight between undefeated champion Danny Garcia taking on knockout artist & #1 contender Lucas Matthysse in what figures to be a fight of the year type of fight.
Alvarez (42 – 0 – 1 – 30KO’s), is the reigning lineal champion at junior middleweight (154pds) & is looking to make the 7th defense of his WBC title. In his last appearance in the squared circle in April, Alvarez took on undefeated southpaw Austin Trout in an instant classic. The fight was much closer than the unanimous decision indicated. I scored the fight 114 – 113 for Alvarez due to the knockdown in the 7th round. But the official judges scored the fight 115 – 112, 116 – 111, & an absurd 118 – 109 for Canelo Alvarez. The fight was critical for two reasons, the first that it showed Canelo could take on a tuff fighter like Trout & win. The latter being that he has a solid fan base that loves him, which puts asses in the seats not to mention, sells ppv’s.
“Money” Mayweather (44 – 0 – 26KO’s) is by far the best fighter of the 21st century. He is an 8-time world champion in 5weight divisions, is arguably the greatest defensive fighter of all-time & is the highest paid athlete on the planet. Not to mention that he has defeated 21 former world champion belt holders along the way. In his last outing, Mayweather took on rugged southpaw Robert Guerrero in a fight that was for the lineal welterweight (147pds) title. Mayweather, who was coming off of a 1 year layoff (that included a 60 day stint in jail on domestic violence charges), looked as fresh as ever landing over 50% of his power shots, while Guerrero was held to just 13% of his shots. The result was a unanimous decision by all three judges 117 – 111 for Mayweather. I scored the fight 118 – 110 for “Money” who collected his 3rd lineal title in a 3rd weight class. However, the fight did only 900,000 ppv buys, which was low for a Mayweather fight indicating that the public didn’t really view Guerrero as a worthy opponent to dethrone the champ. For those reasons, we the fans get Mayweather vs. Alvarez on Saturday night in the boxing event of the year. So without further ado, let’s break this fight down!!!
In order for Alvarez to win & defy the -260 odds against him on Saturday night he must fight with confidence, not overconfidence. He must box in spots, jab in & combo off the jab. The jab is the key to unlocking & opening up Mayweather’s defensive shell. Alvarez will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 pounds heavier in the ring on fight night after rehydrating. This will make him the stronger man inside the ring, but it will also make him the slower man. So in order for Canelo to win he has to fight in stanzas. Box in the beginning, throw power shots to the body in the middle rounds, & then let his hands go in the championship rounds. If he is able to do all that, he will be victorious Saturday night.
Mayweather on the other hand, has a number of ways in which he can win this fight. However, the first 4 rounds of this fight will be dangerous for him if he is not careful & overlooks Canelo early. Mayweather has looked vulnerable in the beginning stages of his fights verse top tier opponents such as De la Hoya, Judah, Hatton, Castillo, and Mosley. Only to make mid -fight adjustments en route to almost shutout performances down the stretch. There is however one fact that cannot be overlooked, Mayweather is 36 years old & Canelo is 23 years old, & one never knows when a fighter of any age may start to show their age in the squared circle. Could this be the night that Mayweather looks human inside the ring? Is there a reason that “Money” is fighting for the second time in the last 4 months, despite the usually long lay-offs he normally has in between fights? We shall find out tomorrow night!!!
Prediction: The first few rounds are competitive with both fighters having their moments on way to splitting the first 6 rounds of the fight at 3 rounds apiece. In the middle rounds, Floyd begins to get his rhythm on point with hard straight right counters to the chin of Alvarez. The pace begins to be too much for the young fighter to deal with, as Mayweather starts to throw combinations with more varicosity, while his speed & defense continue to make Alvarez miss. By the 11th round Canelo is ready to fall & does with a vicious body head combo. Your winner & new lineal Jr. Middleweight champion of the world, Floyd “Money” Mayweather via 11th rd. TKO
Garcia vs. Matthysse Prediction: Both fighters exchange power shots early with Matthysse knocking Garcia down in the 3rd round. Garcia hangs on til the bell, & then makes his adjustment in the middle rounds. By the championship rounds it’s anyone’s fight, but Matthysse begins to tire from having not fought 12 rounds in a long time. Garcia making his 4th defense & fighting his 5th straight title fight in a row has the pedigree to win in the eyes of the judges & steal the last few rounds. Your winner by Split Decision 114 – 113 & still champion… Danny Garcia.