Bo Nix Is Back. Now Can the Broncos Prove Last Year Was No Fluke?

A year ago, nobody outside of Denver saw this coming.

Bo Nix, the former Oregon quarterback who most draft analysts projected as a mid-round developmental prospect, walked into Sean Payton’s offense and delivered one of the more surprising quarterback seasons in recent memory. The Broncos won the AFC West for the first time since their five-year division dominance ended in 2015, made a deep playoff run, knocked off the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, and lost to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game without Nix, who had fractured his ankle late in the Buffalo win.

So yes, last year happened. Now the question is whether Denver can do it again with a fully healthy Nix and a division that has spent the entire offseason trying to catch up.

The Ankle Situation

This is the elephant in the room and it needs to be addressed directly.

Nix fractured his right ankle in the divisional round win over Buffalo and then underwent a second surgery in April to address bone spurs. Two ankle surgeries in the span of three months is not a trivial thing for a quarterback whose mobility is a genuine weapon in Payton’s offense.

The good news is that every report coming out of Denver has been positive. Nix participated in minicamp on a limited basis, and both he and Payton have publicly stated he will be fully ready for training camp. Nix himself said he doesn’t expect the surgeries to affect his mobility in any way.

Take those reports with the appropriate grain of salt that you always should when an organization is talking about an injured quarterback in the summer. But there is no indication at this point that Nix’s return is in serious jeopardy. If he shows up to camp moving freely and takes snaps in 11-on-11 situations early, the concern level drops significantly.

The real worry isn’t Week 1. It’s Week 10. It’s the playoffs. A quarterback who has had two ankle procedures in one offseason is worth monitoring all season long, not just in August.

The Playcalling Shake-Up

The other significant storyline heading into Denver’s camp is a change that doesn’t get enough attention given the ankle news.

Sean Payton announced in February that he was relinquishing playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Davis Webb. Payton was direct about his reasoning, saying he was frustrated with the offense’s pacing, its ability to get plays to Nix efficiently, and an inconsistent run game. He decided the solution was to hand the keys to Webb and step back.

That is a significant admission from one of the more accomplished offensive minds in NFL history. Payton essentially said the offense wasn’t working the way he wanted it to under his watch and that a change was needed.

Webb is 31 years old and has spent his entire three-year coaching career on Payton’s staff. He has never called plays at any level as a coach. That is either a bold vote of confidence in a young coordinator or a significant gamble depending on how you look at it. The AFC West roundtable on ESPN noted that Webb quickly became a hot coaching candidate this offseason, which suggests the league sees something in him. But seeing something in a coordinator and watching that coordinator perform under real game pressure are two different things.

If Webb struggles early, Payton has every right to take the calls back. But roster continuity and offensive scheme familiarity are supposed to be Denver’s advantages this year. A rocky start from a first-time playcaller could undermine both.

What Denver Added

The Broncos made a notable addition at receiver by acquiring Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins. Waddle gives Nix a legitimate speed threat who can win at all three levels of the field and has posted multiple 1,000-yard seasons in the right system. Pairing him with Courtland Sutton and tight end Greg Dulcich gives Nix a more complete set of weapons than he had a year ago.

J.K. Dobbins returns healthy after missing significant time last season, which should get the run game back on track after it stalled without him. A functional Dobbins paired with Waddle and Sutton gives Webb a more complete offense to work with than Denver had in the second half of 2025.

Defensively, the Broncos retained most of the core that made them one of the better units in the AFC last season. Patrick Surtain II remains one of the best cornerbacks in football. The front seven has depth concerns after losing John Franklin-Myers in the middle, and Jonathan Cooper’s off-field issues this offseason add another wrinkle to monitor heading into camp. But the starting unit as a whole is still elite.

The Division Picture

Let me say something that the national media hasn’t been willing to say clearly enough. The Denver Broncos are my pick to win the AFC West in 2026, and it isn’t particularly close.

The oddsmakers have Kansas City as the division favorite at plus-170, with the Chargers right behind them at plus-185 and Denver sitting third at plus-210. That ranking is built almost entirely on reputation and the assumption that a healthy Patrick Mahomes automatically makes the Chiefs the best team in the division. It is not built on roster construction. It is not built on what we actually watched last season. And it deserves to be challenged.

Here’s what Denver actually did in 2025. They went 14-3. They led the NFL with 63 sacks. They finished third in the league in scoring defense. They won 12 comeback games. They beat a healthy Mahomes-led Chiefs team head to head in November. They won the AFC West for the first time since 2015 and made it to the AFC Championship Game with a third-string quarterback after Nix went down in the divisional round. Sports Illustrated’s Denver beat writer noted that the Broncos’ win total over/under is set at just 9.5 games heading into 2026, a full game behind the Chiefs and Chargers, despite Denver being the reigning division champion with most of their core returning. He called it out plainly, saying it won’t help the prevailing belief in Broncos Country that the team can’t seem to buy national respect.

That disrespect is unwarranted. And here’s why.

Kansas City added Kenneth Walker III and brought back essentially the same receiver room that struggled all of last season. Mahomes is working his way back from a torn ACL and LCL with a Week 1 return that is hopeful but not guaranteed. The Chiefs finished 6-11 last year, had historically bad running back production, and were 13.5 point underdogs to Denver in their Christmas Day matchup. Andy Reid and Mahomes are a historically great pairing. Nobody is disputing that. But a recovering quarterback and an unaddressed receiver room don’t automatically make you the best team in the division over a 14-win defending champion with an elite defense and a young quarterback entering his third year.

The Chargers are a legitimate threat with Justin Herbert and the Mike McDaniel offensive coordinator hire. That’s a real concern worth watching. But they have their own questions around Herbert’s injury history and new coordinators on both sides of the ball to integrate.

The Raiders are projected for five wins. They’re not a factor in this conversation.

Denver’s toughest opponent heading into 2026 isn’t Kansas City or Los Angeles. It’s the schedule. As the reigning division champion, the Broncos drew a tougher slate as the first place team, with no real breather until Week 7 against Arizona. That’s a legitimate challenge, and if Nix’s ankle limits him at any point during the season, the depth questions behind him become very real very fast.

All eyes will be on Week 1 when Denver visits Kansas City on Monday Night Football, the NFL’s not-so-subtle signal that they expect Mahomes to suit up. But honestly, the more meaningful game might be the Week 8 rematch in Denver. By then, Mahomes should have several weeks of game action behind him and be closer to operating at full capacity rather than immediately fresh off a nine-month rehab. If the AFC West title race comes down to those two teams, that second meeting could tell us everything.

And it’s hard to dismiss the possibility of a Nix versus Drake Maye AFC playoff rematch either. New England is a legitimate contender. The conference picture is genuinely wide open in a way it hasn’t been in years.

The Bottom Line

If Nix is healthy and Webb can handle the playcalling transition, the Broncos have everything they need to compete for another AFC West title and a deep playoff run. The roster is legitimate. The coaching staff is experienced. Waddle and a healthy Dobbins give the offense more firepower than it had a year ago.

But two question marks sit right at the center of everything Denver is trying to do. Can Nix hold up physically through a full season after two ankle procedures? And can a 31-year-old first-time playcaller handle the weight of an offense with Super Bowl aspirations?

Training camp opens soon and both answers will start to take shape quickly. Denver earned the right to call itself the standard in the AFC West last year. The national media may not be ready to say it out loud, but the Broncos deserve every bit of the respect that comes with being the defending champion.

Until someone proves otherwise on the field, this is still their division to lose.