The Raiders Aren’t Going Anywhere in 2026. Here’s Why You Should Still Pay Attention.

Let’s be upfront about where the Las Vegas Raiders stand heading into 2026.

They are projected to win five games. They have the longest odds to win the AFC West at plus-2000. Their quarterback situation involves a bridge veteran, a No. 1 overall pick who finished mandatory minicamp still taking reps with the third-string offense, and a fourth-year veteran who has been quietly outplaying both of them. They are a team in the middle of a genuine rebuild, and nothing about their roster suggests that’s going to change dramatically this season.

But here’s the thing about rebuilds. The foundation either gets built or it doesn’t. And 2026 is the year you find out which one it is for Las Vegas.

The Quarterback Situation Is More Interesting Than It Looks

The Raiders enter training camp with three quarterbacks and a decision to make.

Kirk Cousins is the frontrunner heading into camp. That much is clear. He’s a four-time Pro Bowler entering his 15th NFL season who ranks in the top six among active quarterbacks in passing yards and touchdowns. More importantly, he has an existing relationship with first-year head coach Klint Kubiak. The two worked together for three seasons in Minnesota, where Cousins threw for over 12,000 yards and 94 touchdowns with Kubiak as his quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator. That familiarity matters in a system that is still being installed. Cousins told Rich Eisen on his podcast that these were the most urgent and productive OTAs he’s been part of in his entire career, which is a pointed comment from a veteran who has played for four franchises.

But Cousins is not the story.

Fernando Mendoza is the story. The No. 1 overall pick and reigning Heisman Trophy winner from Indiana is the quarterback of the future in Las Vegas, and everyone in the building knows it. The question heading into training camp is not whether Mendoza eventually starts. It’s how quickly he’s ready. He finished mandatory minicamp still taking the majority of his reps with the third-string offense, which tells you the coaching staff isn’t rushing him. Kubiak said during Raiders Media Day that he wants all three quarterbacks preparing like starters, and that he’d be comfortable with any of them if their name is called.

The third name in that conversation is Aidan O’Connell, who has had an excellent offseason by most accounts and is currently the most experienced option behind Cousins. Whether O’Connell stays on the 53-man roster or becomes a trade candidate as camp progresses is one of the more interesting subplots to watch.

CBS Sports called Mendoza the real storyline of Raiders training camp, and that’s exactly right. Every rep he takes, every snap under center, every 11-on-11 period he earns his way into will be scrutinized. This is a franchise that desperately needs to know what it has in its quarterback of the future. The sooner Mendoza gives them a clear answer, the sooner everything else about this rebuild snaps into focus.

The Coaching Situation Is Worth Watching

Klint Kubiak is a first-year head coach, which comes with its own set of questions. He spent last season as Seattle’s offensive coordinator and helped the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, which is a genuinely impressive credential. But running an offense and running a franchise are two different things, as we’ve covered repeatedly in this AFC West series.

What Kubiak has going for him beyond the Seahawks experience is the presence of Tom Brady as a minority owner and advisor. Yardbarker noted that Mendoza is in a unique position to learn from not just Cousins but from Brady directly, a quarterback who has a few Super Bowl rings of his own. Whether Brady’s involvement translates into meaningful guidance for a rookie quarterback or remains more of a background presence remains to be seen. But it’s not nothing.

The Talent That Makes It Worth Watching

Here’s where the Raiders get interesting even in a five-win projected season.

Maxx Crosby is one of the best pass rushers in football when healthy, and that last part carries more weight than it did a year ago. Crosby suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee during Week 7 of the 2025 season, played through it until the Raiders shut him down in the final two weeks, and had surgery in January. The Raiders agreed to trade him to the Baltimore Ravens for two first-round picks this offseason, only for Baltimore to back out after his physical revealed a degenerative knee condition that raised concerns about his long-term durability. The Ravens walked away. The picks came back. Crosby stayed in Las Vegas.

The good news is that everything coming out of the Crosby camp since then has been encouraging. He says he’s ahead of schedule, his strength numbers on both legs are within one percent of each other, and Kubiak’s stated goal is for Crosby to be ready when training camp opens in late July. He hasn’t strapped on a helmet or participated in practice during OTAs or minicamp, but he’s been on the field for warmups and conditioning and publicly says he feels like himself again.

Whether the degenerative knee condition the Ravens flagged limits him this season or long-term is a genuine question nobody outside the medical staff can answer right now. What we know is that a healthy Crosby is one of the most disruptive defensive players in the league, and the Raiders desperately need him to be that guy in 2026. The Raiders also invested heavily in the defense around him this offseason, adding linebacker Nakobe Dean, linebacker Quay Walker, and edge rusher Kwity Paye to give Crosby legitimate help for the first time in years.

Brock Bowers is entering his second NFL season after one of the most explosive tight end rookie campaigns in recent memory. He gives whatever quarterback is taking snaps a legitimate safety valve and a mismatch creator that most teams in the league would love to have. The tight end room is deep around him and could be a genuine strength of this team.

Ashton Jeanty is entering his second NFL season coming off a rookie year that deserves more credit than it has received. He finished with 1,321 scrimmage yards, the most by any Raiders rookie in franchise history, breaking Josh Jacobs’ record. He had 10 total touchdowns and was named to the PFWA All-Rookie Team. He did all of that behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, one that went through six different starting combinations due to injuries, giving him virtually no room to run all season. Among running backs with at least 200 carries, he had the second fewest yards before contact in the entire NFL. Nearly 90 percent of his production came after contact. That’s not a running back who failed to live up to his draft position. That’s a running back who was asked to make something out of nothing week after week and largely did.

The Raiders addressed the offensive line this offseason, which is the most important thing they could have done for Jeanty heading into year two. If he gets anything resembling consistent blocking in Kubiak’s offense, the leap in production could be significant. He is one of the more legitimate reasons for optimism on this roster heading into training camp.

The receiving corps skews young and largely unproven, which is by design. This is a team building for the future, and the young receivers will benefit from playing alongside veterans and developing over the course of a full season.

What Success Actually Looks Like in 2026

Nobody reasonable expects the Raiders to make the playoffs. Five wins is probably a realistic outcome, and it might be fewer depending on the schedule. Kubiak is coaching for his future with every decision he makes this season, which adds an interesting layer of urgency to a team that has no pressure to win now.

Here’s how to honestly evaluate this season. If Mendoza develops enough to take over the starting job by midseason and shows the kind of traits that justify being the No. 1 overall pick, 2026 did its job. If Crosby returns healthy and plays at the level that made him a five-time Pro Bowler, 2026 did its job. If Bowers continues to develop into one of the premier tight ends in the league, 2026 did its job. If Jeanty gets the blocking he deserves and takes the leap everyone believes he’s capable of, 2026 did its job. If Kubiak demonstrates he can run an organization and build a culture worth believing in, 2026 did its job.

The Raiders haven’t been relevant in years. Building something sustainable takes time and requires honest evaluation of young talent under real game conditions. This is the year the foundation gets tested. Watch Mendoza. Watch Bowers. Watch Crosby when he returns. Watch Jeanty behind a better offensive line. And watch Kubiak to see whether a Super Bowl-winning coordinator can make the leap to head coach.

The wins may not come in 2026. But the answers might.