Colts: Can Daniel Jones Stay Healthy Long Enough to Prove Last Year Wasn’t a Fluke?

The Indianapolis Colts started the 2025 season 8-2, the best record in the NFL.

They missed the playoffs entirely. They became the first team in NFL history to start 8-2 and not make the postseason. That’s the kind of collapse that happens when a roster gets hit by a wave of injuries at exactly the wrong time, and that’s precisely what happened in Indianapolis.

Daniel Jones is the reason the Colts were 8-2 in the first place. And he’s the reason the second half of the season fell apart.

Before going down with a torn Achilles tendon on December 7, Jones was genuinely one of the better quarterbacks in football. He completed 68 percent of his passes, ranked third in the NFL in yards per attempt at 8.1, fourth in completion percentage, and sixth in passer rating at 100.2. Those are career-high numbers across the board, and they weren’t a product of a soft schedule or a gimmick system. He was playing the best football of his life at 28 years old.

Then he tore his Achilles, and then it came out he’d been playing through a fractured fibula on his other leg beforehand.

The Colts gave him a two-year, $88 million contract this offseason anyway. That’s either a franchise showing enormous faith in a quarterback who finally found his footing, or an organization paying premium money for a player who has now suffered a season-ending injury in three of his seven NFL seasons. Probably both.

The recovery news has been about as encouraging as it could be, though. Achilles tears typically take 10 to 12 months to fully recover from. Jones was back on the practice field during OTAs, less than six months after surgery, which is well ahead of schedule. Head coach Shane Steichen said publicly he’s “very happy” with Jones’ progress. Jones himself said he feels “closer” but still has work to do, and that he expects to be ready for Week 1 against Baltimore on September 13.

For context on whether that’s realistic, the Colts have pointed to Kirk Cousins, who tore his Achilles in Week 8 of the 2023 season and returned for the start of the 2024 season. Jones has demonstrated a capacity to recover quickly before too, returning from a torn ACL in time for the start of the 2024 season.

That’s the optimistic case. The realistic case also has to acknowledge that this is a quarterback who has now dealt with a fractured fibula, a torn ACL, and a torn Achilles, all within a relatively short span of his career, and that the Deshaun Watson precedent, a player who re-ruptured his Achilles during rehab and lost his entire 2025 season, is at least worth keeping in mind even if it’s considered rare.

Jones isn’t the only injury concern heading into camp, either. Wide receiver Alec Pierce, who was re-signed to a four-year, $114 million deal this offseason, is recovering from ankle surgery and could open camp on the PUP list, with a four-to-six month recovery timeline putting his Week 1 availability in real question. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, one of the best interior linemen in the league, is recovering from a herniated disc. Cornerback Sauce Gardner, acquired from the Jets midseason, is coming back from a calf injury that sidelined him for much of the stretch run.

That’s four significant players all in recovery mode simultaneously, for a team that already showed what happens when injuries pile up in the second half of a season.

There’s also the Anthony Richardson situation, which is its own subplot heading into camp. Richardson, the fourth overall pick in 2023, lost his starting job to Jones last year and has reportedly requested a trade that the Colts have yet to fulfill. He’s due a $4.24 million roster bonus on the third day of camp, and the team will have to decide what to do with him. Having three quarterbacks on the roster competing for meaningful reps, when one of them actively wants out, is a distraction the Colts don’t need while trying to nurse their starter back from a torn Achilles.

Here’s where I land on all of this. The talent on this roster is real. The system is real, Shane Steichen built something around Jones last year that produced one of the most efficient stretches of quarterback play Indianapolis has seen in years. The foundation is strong enough that if Jones comes back healthy and Pierce is ready by September, this team is absolutely in the playoff conversation in the AFC South.

But this organization’s entire 2026 season pivots on one word: health. Everything else is in place. The question is whether the injury luck that deserted them in the second half of 2025 finally holds long enough to let this roster show what it’s actually capable of.

Steichen summed it up as honestly as anyone could. He said Jones might not be the exact version fans saw early last season right away, but he’s still going to be really good, and as he plays more, he’ll be fine.

That’s either the most reassuring thing a coach can say about a recovering quarterback, or the most qualified vote of confidence in the AFC South.